Wednesday, 12 December, 2018

NOAA: Tropical Storm Kirk 2018 Projected Path, Spaghetti Models

Tropical disturbances form, strengthen in the Atlantic as busy September ends Tropical depression forms in the Atlantic; three other disturbances tracked
| 24 September, 2018, 21:57

Tropical Storm Kirk picked up speed in the Atlantic Ocean Sunday, but late Sunday its winds fell to just below tropical storm force level.

Kirk could potentially impact the USVI in some form during the upcoming weekend, according to the storm's projected path.

The storm is located about 465 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and now doesn't pose a threat to land, according to the latest advisory.

Leslie is a subtropical storm in the open Atlantic, about 1,100 miles west of the Azores.

Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Leslie formed Sunday morning in the North Atlantic.

NHC forecasters say that some strengthening is predicted during the next day or two.


By the middle of next week, upper-level winds are likely to strengthen again, which would limit additional development as the system moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the area of low pressure a 30 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 40 percent chance within the next five days.

But in the center's 11 a.m. advisory, that system jumped to name status: Tropical Storm Kirk.

The NHC says it's expected to dissipate within two days and is no longer issuing updates on the system. "The global models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast period".

Leslie has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving southwest at 5 miles per hour. They have maximum sustained winds of 25 mph and are about 350 miles east-northeast of the Windward Islands.

The NHC official forecast is still not as high in strength as the statistical-dynamical guidance and more closely follows the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and intensity consensus, as well as the trends in the GFS and ECMWF.

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