Tuesday, 20 November, 2018

Oil dips on rising USA crude inventories

Saudi Arabia reins in oil production as demand forecasts waver Trump administration pressure on Tehran forces Iran to start selling discounted oil
| 15 August, 2018, 20:56

"Everything is weakening, but from a pretty elevated level", said Jeff Brown, president of energy consultancy FGE.

While demand is deteriorating on the back of global trade tensions, slowing economic growth as well as liquidity concerns and has led to profit booking in the energy counter; on the other hand, a strong dollar and over-supply concerns are making a further dent on prices.

Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, pumping 3.65 million bpd in July, media data show.

Crude prices have dipped in recent weeks, reflecting less worry about supplies following increased output by Russian Federation and several OPEC nations, the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report about the global oil market. This was said to be due to weaker-than-expected oil demand data from Latin America and the Middle East in the second quarter.

Gasoline futures fell 0.5 percent to $2.0293 a gallon.

World trade volume growth peaked in January, and since then has almost halved to less than 3 percent by May, according to the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. In Turkey, an economy that's larger than the Netherlands or Taiwan, bonds and stocks dropped along with the currency as investor confidence plunged.


Around two-thirds of USA oil producers failed to balance costs in the second quarter, despite crude oil prices rising above $70 per barrel, the Wall Street reports.

"The direct impact on global demand for oil is negligible", Fritsch said.

The overall demand for Opec's crude is now expected to be 32.9 million barrels a day this year, which is around 600,000 barrels a day lower than in 2017. "Perceptions about emerging-market demand are also going to be negative for the energy complex".

But the increases matter little when weighed against China's tanker imports, which fell from more than 8 million bpd during January and June to about 7.3 million bpd in July. There were "a lot of fears about the Iran volumes coming off and US supply, but none of those fears have played out". It's also some way off a record of more than 20 million bpd from April 2016.

Escalating trade disputes between the US, China and other countries have dimmed the outlook for economic growth and boosted the US dollar, making oil more expensive for consumers using other currencies.

Because of the conflicting factors in oil markets, McKenna said "I'm staying out of oil at the moment".

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