Tuesday, 21 August, 2018

7.7-pct GDP growth rate shows India's economy on uptrend: business leader

India clocks 7.7 per cent GDP growth for Q4FY18 Indian economic growth accelerates sharply in Q4 FY2018, RBI likely to hike interest rate by 50 bps in 2018
| 04 June, 2018, 11:11

The fourth-quarter growth rate prompted the Finance Ministry to say the economy would clock 7.5% growth in 2018-19, the upper range of growth projected by the Economic Survey. The country, which is classified as "lower-middle income economy" with a GNI per capita of $1,455 in 2017 by the World Bank, is expected to clock a 6.7 per cent GDP growth in 2018.

"So manufacturing at 9.1 per cent and construction at 11.5 per cent indicate a turnaround in the economy which going forward would also give a big momentum to growth", he said.

The previous high GDP growth of 8.1 per cent was recorded in April-June quarter of 2016-17.

Briefing reporters in New Delhi this evening, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs S C Garg said, GDP growth has been revised upwards from 6.6 percent.

India's economic expansion at 7.7 per cent was significantly higher than China's 6.8 per cent in the January-March period. The strong growth was largely a combination of three factors - a pickup in manufacturing, construction and agriculture.

Economists are predicting a further pick-up in activity during the current financial year on the back of higher consumption demand, a stable GST and a surge in investment towards end of the year.

GVA includes taxes but excludes subsidies.


Though March quarter figures suggest that the economy is rebounding, doubts remain over whether it can sustain the pace amid surging oil prices and a fast depreciating rupee.

Health of the banking sector will also be crucial. However, we expect tighter financing conditions, rising oil prices and slower investments in the run-up to elections to slow GDP growth later in the year.

"A sustained rise in oil prices to $100 a barrel could even lead to a re-emergence of some of the external and currency risks that existed pre-2014", said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd.

"We have cut our FY19 GDP forecast by 20 basis points taking into account rising oil prices and potential global trade wars", said Teresa John, economist, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities.

The gross value addition (GVA) for the January-March quarter expanded at 7.6 per cent from from 6 per cent a year ago, data showed.

"But as I had been saying in the past as well, there is no one to one relation between the oil price growth and the GDP growth".

However, growth is likely to get a boost from monsoon rains, which hit the southern state of Kerala a few days earlier than normal, potentially brightening the outlook for agricultural output.

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