Sunday, 19 August, 2018

Oil surges to fresh highs on growing supply worries

A worker on an oil rig in North Dakota. American output has been soaring as shale drillers take advantage of higher prices to boost output Venezuela Iran issues led to highest rise in oil prices since 2014
| 08 May, 2018, 02:26

The price of oil has crossed $70/barrel and the trend is upwards.

So how far are these countries from a major supply disruption that will affect prices and the balance of the oil market?

Saudi Arabia has also trimmed its oil production more than 100 percent of the output cuts it agreed to under the January 2017 production deal. As the spread between the two benchmarks widens, WTI trades at a significant cost advantage against Brent as well as other crude benchmarks.

Also supporting prices, North Sea oilfields connected to the Brent oil pipeline have stopped production due to a shutdown at the UK's Sullom Voe oil terminal, the Brent pipeline operator said, reducing output of the crude. If we can clear the $60 level, then the market should continue to go much higher, and I do expect that to happen.

United States oil prices have gained more than 16 per cent since the start of the year. The outcome could see crude oil either extend its current run of gains or trigger a deflation of the risk premium which has built up in recent weeks.

The exhibition is attended by leading producers and manufacturers of the industry, builders, consulting engineers, general contractors, scientific professionals in the field of oil exploration, production and refining and IT experts. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note held steady at 2.95 percent. Prices rose 2.4 percent last week.


The inaugural ceremony of the exhibition was attended by Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) Secretary General Yury Sentyurin, Croatian Deputy Prime Minister Martina Dalic, and a number of Iranian parliament members, ambassadors of other countries in Iran, directors of Iranian oil, gas and petrochemical industries, and representatives of some renowned worldwide companies.

The JMMC has reported that the compliance level of the 24 countries who are voluntarily cutting their production under a global agreement, was at a record high of 149 percent as of end of March. This is, in part, because supplies have appreciably tightened.

Iran resumed its role as a major oil exporter in January 2016 when global sanctions were lifted in return for curbs on Tehran's nuclear program. Top crude oil exporter Saudi Arabia's, for its part, exported 9.3 million bpd in January, while Russian Federation exported 7.4 million bpd, the bank added.

But many ministers are still debating that $70 oil isn't enough for investments so seeing oil at $80 maybe plausible to them.

Despite the price adjustment, sour is still higher on the year.

Mining giant Glencore PLC and Qatar walked back plans to sell an nearly $9 billion stake in Russian state oil company PAO Rosneft to CEFC China Energy Co., a once-high-flying Chinese firm now embroiled in legal woes.

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